![]() ![]() And the shah famously went on television, and he apologized for past sins and transgressions. You know, there was a critical moment in late 1978 when there was protests mushrooming against the shah of Iran, the monarchy in Iran. SADJADPOUR: Well, I think we can assume the government response is going to be overwhelming brutality. ![]() What does that tell you about where the protests may go or where the government response may go? Ebrahim Raisi stepped into the presidency last year. KELLY: One thing that is different from the last big round of protests in Iran in 2019 is a new government, new president. And so you have a country ruled by very old, traditional men presiding over a much more modern, young society. And he's empowered similarly geriatric traditional institutions. The supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is 83 years old. And it's a system, the Islamic Republic of Iran, which is ruled by elderly men. Some people - their primary grievance is social. And once that fire is lit, you see all of these grievances come together. So this was the match that lit the fire this time. And some reporting came out saying that she begged the morality police not to take her away, and essentially she was beaten into a coma. So in this instance, the trigger for these large-scale uprisings was the killing of a 22-year-old woman. So what's somewhat unique about the Islamic Republic of Iran, even by the standards of dictatorships, is that it's not only politically authoritarian, but it's also economically and socially authoritarian. ![]() But is that the tip of the iceberg in terms of what is continuing to drive them? KELLY: What is driving these protests? They started as a protest over the hijab, over what happened to Mahsa Amini at the hands of the morality police. So it's not a sustainable system, but with a lot of repression, these systems can sustain themselves for sometimes longer than we think. KARIM SADJADPOUR: I would argue that the survival of the Islamic Republic of Iran is simply not sustainable to have a regime whose ideology is premised on hostility toward America and criminalizes women's clothing. So where might the regime's response go to this latest wave of protests now underway sparked by the death of a 22-year-old woman, Mahsa Amini? I put that question to someone who's followed all these protests closely, Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Hundreds of protesters were killed according to human rights groups. In 2019, it was soaring gas prices that drew masses into the streets. Protesters were killed, arrested, tortured. 2009 saw demonstrations sparked by allegations of a rigged presidential election. Iran has experience shutting down protests. ![]()
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